California has 99.7 percent probability of major quake in 30 years; report

by Rich Bowden - Apr 14 2008, 23:13

A survey conducted by the Southern California Earthquake Centre, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the California Geological Survey, with major support from the California Earthquake Authority, has concluded there is a 99.7 percent chance California will face a earthquake of magnitude 6.7 percent or larger by the year 2037.

Photo: Californian earthquake probability map. Credit. Southern Californian Earthquake Centre.

The study adds the probability of an even larger quake (7.5 percent or higher) in the region during the same time period is around 46 percent.The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) report is the first major framework for examining earthquake likelihood in all of California and provides "...important new information for improving seismic safety engineering, revising building codes, setting insurance rates, and helping communities prepare for inevitable future earthquakes," according to a statement.The forecast analysed historical data as well as fault line locations, tectonic movement and paleoseismological data in the research for the report."The sobering thing to me is we've never seen anything like a 99 percent probability before," said Tom Parsons, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park. "That's not a number we throw around a lot."“It [the study] basically guarantees it's going to happen,” said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report, according to National Geographic.One of the most seismically active spots in the world with some 300 fault lines traversing the state, the last time California had an earthquake of large magnitude was in 1994. The quake took the lives of 70 people with more than 9,000 injured and damages estimated at $25 billion.

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Bumpy GeneApr 19th, 2008 - 14:54:09

Now, how many good citizens do we think will consider this information when choosing a home location?

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California has 99.7 percent probability of major quake in 30 years; report

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