I'll try to be brief. I am an expert in modeling time series data. I looked at the local station temperature data from several locations in the US. One station had uninterrupted data since the 1890's, Wichita, KS, USA.
I found no evidence of a warming or cooling trend, but plenty of evidence of cyclic variations in temperature. One of the periods of about 60 years matches pretty well with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
We appear to be heading into the cool phase of the PDO, which lasts about thirty years.
The question I have is why did it took a bunch of time and resources consumed by several eminent climate modeling scientists to figure out that since 1996, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycle has been reasonably well characterized, and probably impacts local as well as global climate.
As a former scientist, my opinion is if the global climate models could not show cyclic variations in temperature up to now, while several rural local temperature time series matched global PDO cycles quite well, the validity of the these climate models is dubious at best.
PB DePetrilloMay 2nd, 2008 - 07:36:47
I'll try to be brief. I am an expert in modeling time series data. I looked at the local station temperature data from several locations in the US. One station had uninterrupted data since the 1890's, Wichita, KS, USA.
well.com/user/pdeep/pages/warm07/stat02/stat02.shtml
I found no evidence of a warming or cooling trend, but plenty of evidence of cyclic variations in temperature. One of the periods of about 60 years matches pretty well with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
We appear to be heading into the cool phase of the PDO, which lasts about thirty years.
The question I have is why did it took a bunch of time and resources consumed by several eminent climate modeling scientists to figure out that since 1996, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycle has been reasonably well characterized, and probably impacts local as well as global climate.
As a former scientist, my opinion is if the global climate models could not show cyclic variations in temperature up to now, while several rural local temperature time series matched global PDO cycles quite well, the validity of the these climate models is dubious at best.
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