Background: the threat from North Korea's Taepodong-2 missile

by Rich Bowden - Jun 4 2009, 04:12

Amongst all the recent sabre-rattling, threats, and evidence of imminent missile launches by the North Korean regime (DPRK), the success or otherwise of the launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Taepodong-2 is being taken very seriously by North Korea's regional neighbours.

Various Western intelligence sources have said there are credible signs DPRK military has moved its most sophisticated and dangerous missile to a launch pad near Dongchang-ni on the country's west coast ready for testing.

Both the South Korean government and Japan have warned of the possibility of an imminent launch from the North.

"Given that North Korea has carried out a nuclear test, we can't deny the possibility that they will further test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile," Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura told reporters this week in Tokyo.

Meanwhile, a delegation led by U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg has arrived in Seoul to look at ways to contain the North Korean nuclear threat.

"We have a common view of the dangers posed by North Korea's missile and nuclear developments, and a common commitment to try to find the path forward to reverse this," Steinberg told South Korean Defence Minister Lee Sang-hee and Gen. Walter Sharp of the U.S. Forces Korea.

There is speculation the North may attempt to embarrass both the United States and South Korea by launching the missile on June 16, the day South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is due to attend talks with President Barack Obama in Washington.

The missile moved to the launch pad is considered by Western experts to be a version of the Taepodong-2, which has been previously tested in June 2008 and April 2009.

According to Western experts, the tests were both failures, although the second test in April 2009, "demonstrated a more complete performance," according to a recent National Air and Space Intelligence Centre (NASIC) study on the missile threat to the United States.

The Taopondong-2 is described as the most potent in the North Korean arsenal, thanks to an estimated range of 4,000 to 4,500 kilometres, which gives it the potential to reach Alaska.

However, though Western administrations have condemned the pre-launch manoeuvres and the press is full of the perceived danger of the Taepodong-2 to countries in the region, there is some scepticism in scientific circles as to whether the missile is indeed a threat.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a scientific think tank, has pointed out the missile has never been launched successfully and described its potential performance as "uncertain".

"There is... much greater uncertainty about what its performance could be or even precisely what the missile is," said the FAS report.

Though agreeing that the missile certainly has the potential to threaten the U.S. mainland, the report concluded that claims regarding the Taepodong-2's performance and accuracy remain questionable.

While the threat of a nuclear attack from the DPRK on the United States appears remote at best, the NASIC report found the main concern for the U.S. may be from the sale of such missile technology to terrorist organisations or rogue states.

"The Taepodong-2 could be exported to other countries in the future," warned the report.

It is perhaps this nightmare scenario rather than any perceived immediate threat to the U.S. that has the Obama administration, through Defence Secretary Robert Gates, saying a nuclear North Korea will not be tolerated.

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