Swine flu more contagious than previously thought

by Rich Bowden - Jul 27 2009, 04:12

New Zealand researchers testing the threat of the H1N1 virus have found that a person who is infected with the strain can potentially infect two more people.

The result of the study, conducted by Associate Professor Michael Baker and Dr Nick Wilson from the Department of Public Health at the University ofOtago, Wellington, shows the pandemic to be potentially far more lethal than previously thought with an estimated 80 percent of New Zealanders thought to be at risk.

The research was carried out done in collaboration with Dr Hiroshi Nishiura, a mathematical modeller based at the University of Utrecht in Holland and published in the New Zealand Medical Journal.

The study for the first time gives the first published estimate for the reproduction number of the pandemic in the Southern Hemisphere.

"Our best estimate of the reproduction number for the Influenza A virus in New Zealand is 1.96, which is somewhat higher than the number we have previously used in modelling estimates," says Associate Professor Baker. "To date we have tended to use a lower estimate of 1.5 which was published early in the pandemic based on data from Mexico."

Up to 80 per cent of the population is said to be at risk of catching the virus though only an estimated two thirds of these will show symptoms, said a university news release.

However the reproduction rate may need to be reevaluated said the researchers, particularly if a concerted hygiene campaign is successful in reducing infection rates.

"This result reinforces the need for those with influenza symptoms to do everything they can to prevent infecting others," says Dr Nick Wilson. "Staying away from work and school while ill and practicing good 'cough etiquette' can all help to lower the spread of this new virus in New Zealand".

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